Research Areas

Supply Chain Coordination

I study how pricing and operational policies can coordinates supply chains and achieves optimal profits, with particular interests in business volume discounts, lot-sizing decisions, and perishable-goods supply chains.

Supply Chain Coordination Business Volume Discounts Perishable Supply Chains

Machine Learning for Forecasting & Bandit Pricing

I apply machine learning to operational decision-making, with current work spanning supervised learning for forecasting demand and capacity and online bandit learning for dynamic pricing and revenue management.

Machine Learning Forecasting Bandit Pricing

Process Improvement Projects

I study process improvement projects with a focus on Six Sigma projects, and the organizational and project-level factors that affect outcomes in manufacturing and service settings.

Process Improvement Six Sigma Project Success
Under Review
A Synthesis of Action Research with Emergent Theory Building: New Themes for Managing Project Context
Thamer Almutairi, Omar Al-Zadid, Xun Xu, Tim Baker
Under review at International Journal of Lean Six Sigma

This study synthesizes participatory action research across 13 Six Sigma projects in manufacturing and service firms to identify factors associated with project success. The analysis highlights timeliness and prioritization as recurring themes and examines how project conditions shape their effects.

Forecasting Manufacturing Capacity Utilization: The Relative Value of Operational Variables and External Risk Indicators
Omar Al-Zadid
Under review at International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques & Strategies

This study compares machine-learning and traditional time-series approaches for forecasting U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization. It evaluates the relative predictive value of internal operational variables and external macroeconomic risk indicators, with implications for capacity and inventory planning.

Working Paper
Probabilistic Forecasting of Intermittent Demand Using Natural Gradient Boosting
Omar Al-Zadid, Yuan Wang
Accepted for publication at Decision Sciences Institute 2026 Annual Proceeding

This study develops a probabilistic machine-learning approach for forecasting intermittent demand by combining Natural Gradient Boosting with a negative binomial distribution. The model improves demand forecasts with respect to Poisson GLM and Croston's benchmarks, explicitly accounts for uncertainty, and supports inventory decisions such as safety stock and reorder-point planning.

Work in Progress
Optimal Multi-Item Business Volume Discount Strategies for Sellers
Omar Al-Zadid, Charles L. Munson

This study develops an analytically grounded pricing approach for coordinating a multi-product supply chain under business volume discounts. The proposed policy combines a uniform markup with a calibrated discount breakpoint to improve system profitability under linear price-sensitive, isoelastic, and exponential demand scenarios.

An Empirical Test of Six Sigma Best Practice Theory
Omar Al-Zadid, Tim Baker

This study empirically tests existing Six Sigma project-success frameworks using survey data from U.S. manufacturers. It examines how project-management practices, timeliness, prioritization, project complexity, and uncertainty shape Six Sigma project success.

Bid-Price-Consistent Bandit Pricing for LOS Networks: Two-Time-Scale Learning with Constrained Projection
Aysajan Eziz, Omar Al-Zadid

This study develops a bid-price-consistent primal-dual online learning algorithm for hotel pricing under unknown demand. The algorithm learns nightly prices from booking responses while accounting for room scarcity and operational pricing constraints, with the goal of maximizing revenue over time.

Remaining Shelf-Life Estimation of Cherries in the Cold Supply Chain
Omar Al-Zadid, Smit Patel, Charles L. Munson

This project examines how time, temperature, product movement, and temperature-abuse scenarios affect the remaining shelf life and value of cherries across the cold supply chain. The goal is to quantify operational losses and support more profitable distribution decisions.

Conference Presentations & Talks
Nov 2026 (Upcoming)
Probabilistic Forecasting of Intermittent Demand Using Natural Gradient Boosting
with Yuan Wang
Decision Sciences Institute Annual Conference · San Francisco, California
Nov 2026 (Upcoming)
Optimal Multi-Item Business Volume Discount Strategies for Sellers
with Charles L. Munson
INFORMS Annual Meeting · San Francisco, California
May 2026
Bid-Price-Consistent Bandit Pricing for LOS Networks: Two-Time-Scale Learning with Constrained Projection*
with Aysajan Eziz
POMS Annual Conference · Invited Session · Reno, Nevada
May 2026
An Empirical Test of Six Sigma Best Practice Theory
with Tim Baker
POMS Annual Conference · Reno, Nevada
May 2026
Transformer-Based Methods for Intermittent Demand Forecasting
POMS Annual Conference · Reno, Nevada
Oct 2025
Forecasting Manufacturing Inefficiencies with External Risk Indicators and Data-Driven Modeling
INFORMS Annual Meeting · Atlanta, Georgia

* Presentation by a co-author.